El Niño events, which usually form every three to four years, are triggered by warmer surface water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with warmer water leading to stronger El Niños.

In a report released this week, NOAA said “El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter,” with a greater than 95 percent chance through January-March 2024.

There’s a 30-percent chance, according to NOAA, that it could hit top-level “super” El Niño status, with a degree of strength that could result in severe weather, and a 71-percent chance it will be a strong El Niño.

The last time there was a “super” El Niño was 2015-2016.

What does this mean for the US?

Expect warmer-than-normal temperatures for the Northeast – from New York and Pennsylvania through New England.

In the southern US, temps will be closer to average.

For a look at predicted temperatures through January 2024 from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, see the first image above.

As far as precipitation goes, expect above-level amounts through January 2024 in areas shown in shades of green in the second image above.

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