The dreaded “due wall” is only a few months away from looming in the multifamily housing sector.
More than $4 billion in commercial mortgage-backed securities loans related to multifamily housing are due in October, according to a report from Gray Capital, reported by Bisnow.
November is not expected to fare much better as CMBS loans come due at just under $4 billion, according to CoStar data cited by the firm. Totals will even be higher than projected totals, as those figures exclude non-CMBS loans.
The impending expiration comes two years after the peak of investment activity in the sector.pay attention to the surrounding loan The value added of commercial real estate has been growing over the past 15 months as the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates.
While rental demand remains high, many landlords have borrowed on their properties at a time when interest rates are very low. Since they surged, interest from banks and lenders in refinancing has waned.
Some homeowners will work it out with their lenders, but others will face faced with difficult choicesespecially if interest rates don’t look like they’re going to fall.
Owners can try to stretch and pretend, though their chances of repaying the loan will become less favorable. They can also sell their properties, although a downturn in the commercial market means discounts are likely. Otherwise, they risk letting things go and potentially losing their property to foreclosure.
Gray Capital chief executive Spencer Gray said much of the onus would be on the lenders.
“Is their balance sheet going to be so upside down that they’re going to be forced to make some decisions and start foreclosures?” Gray asked Bisnow.
Commercial real estate faces a maturity wall totaling $1.5 trillion across industries over the next few years. While the multifamily housing sector is likely to fare better beyond October and November, it’s unclear what upcoming loan maturities mean for the sector.
— holden walter warner